Business leaders and economists are on the lookout for how President Donald Trump’s plans will affect the state, especially the manufacturing sector.
The Detroit Economic Club heard Tuesday from experts who help mold the state’s economic plans. A lot of their attention is focused on the Trump administration’s trade policies, especially tariffs. There’s concern that higher duties on goods and raw materials could harm manufacturing.
That is certainly a possibility, said State Treasurer Rachel Eubanks, but a lot will depend on how tariffs are structured.
“The industry that we have here in Michigan is very complicated,” she said. “You know, we’ve got a very complicated supply chain network. We know that there’s various implications that will occur.”
Although Trump had pledged during the campaign that he would enact tariffs on his first day in office, Eubanks said the Trump administration does not appear to be moving quickly on actually imposing duties on trade partners. The panel said a lot of the new president’s public statements appear designed to set negotiating positions.
University of Michigan economist Gabriel Ehrlich said unemployment in Michigan is expected to remain very low at between 3% and 4%. But he also expects the job market to cool off.
“Churn in the labor market has slowed down quite a bit, so people are staying in their jobs,” he said. “You know, two years ago, there was a ton of turnover, tons of job vacancies. People were moving around. That was the way to get raises. Now you’re seeing people look at their jobs and saying, huh, maybe I should hang onto that.”
Michigan Economic Development Corporation CEO Quentin Messer said he is optimistic.
“The underlying fundamentals are sound,” he said. “I think you have new leadership at the federal level that will shake up things and create new opportunities and I think our companies, our workforce, are prepared and built for whatever comes.”
The group also said they are watching how immigration policy, since most of the state’s population growth in recent years is due to migration from other countries.
Trump signed immigration orders Tuesday to reduce the number of people allowed to enter the U.S. and to beef up armed security at the border. Michigan also shares a international borders with Canada.
If tariffs on Mexico and Canada go into effect on February 1 as Trump has promised, Michigan State University supply chain management professor Jason Miller said it would be disruptive to Michigan's auto industry. Miller said manufacturers in the state rely on supply chains that cross both borders, citing statistics for the first 11 months of 2024.
"So far in 2024, there have been over $200 billion of imports from Canada and Mexico in the broader motor vehicle and parts sector," Miller said. "That's not only finished vehicles, that's also parts that are then going to be put into assembly operations here in the state of Michigan."
