Scientists say July 2023 will may be the hottest month on record. The world continues to experience record-breaking temperatures, uncontrollable wildfires, and devastating storm systems. And they say it’s a result of fossil fuel use. As part of an effort to curb climate change, the Environmental Protection Agency is proposing strict emissions limits for new vehicles.
Tom Krisher is an automotive reporter for the Associated Press. He joined host Katheryne Friske to talk about how the EPA’s plan may or may not work.
Katheryne Friske: So, what limits on the automotive industry are in the EPA's proposal?
Tom Krisher: The EPA is pretty much leaving it up to the auto industry to decide how to reach targets for greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles. And there are, I think, four options in the regulation that they've proposed. It's not a final regulation yet, but of these four options, the EPA has a preferred option that would cut the greenhouse gas emissions to 82 grams per mile by 2032. And to get there, the EPA - although they deny having an electric vehicle mandate, they seem to be pushing electric vehicles - and new electric vehicle sales would amount to 67% of all the new vehicle sales in the United States by 2032. Which sounds very ambitious and the auto industry says they can't meet it.
Even with the proposed limit, "about 80% of the vehicles on the road would still be burning gasoline in 2032."Tom Krisher, automotive reporter for AP
But at the same time, if you go back, the EPA has in the past proposed regulation estimates of how many vehicles will be sold in each of the years covered by the regulation. And if you add those up, you only come up with about 60 million electric vehicles being sold by 2032. There's 284 million [cars and trucks] on the road right now. So you're only going to replace about one fifth [of gas-powered vehicles]. About 80% of the vehicles on the road would still be burning gasoline in 2032.
KF: In your article, you say automakers would have a hard time hitting that milestone. Why do they say that?
TK: They're saying that the EPA doesn't take into consideration, number one: whether people will accept the EVs and buy them and replace their gas burning vehicles. And they're also saying that there are scarce minerals for batteries that the EPA is not taking into account and they're not taking into account the expense. Automakers will have to also do some cutting of greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline powered vehicles. And the automakers are saying there's limited capital. They want to dedicate all of their capital, or the bulk of it, to, going to EVs. And they're saying that if we have to do gas vehicles, too, that's a big strain on capital.
KF: You spoke with environmentalists and they say that these regulations don't go far enough. Can you explain their argument?
TK: The biggest objection I got was from the ICCT, International Council for Clean Transportation. They had done some calculations. The EPA's proposal in 2032 would have it at 82 grams per mile of greenhouse gases and the ICCT says they've got to get to 57 in order to meet the Paris Climate [Agreement].
Everybody's kind of stepping gingerly here. The environmental groups don't want to criticize the EPA too much because this is the biggest cut in greenhouse gas emissions that the EPA has ever proposed. But they are saying that it just doesn't go far enough, that it has to go down even more because we're hitting, you know, close to that two degree limit growth in the earth's temperature.
"Americans buy the biggest cars they can afford. That's borne out in sales statistics. And so those are still out there and they're still going to be selling them."Tom Krisher, automotive reporter for AP
KF: And the automakers are saying they can't get there.
TK: Yeah, and that's kind of in doubt, too. I mean, Americans buy the biggest cars they can afford. That's borne out in sales statistics. And so those are still out there and they're still going to be selling them. And, you know, some of them only get 13, 14, 15 miles per gallon. So I think the demand for those is still there.
You know, there's some skepticism on people's parts that they want to shift right now. They're worried about the price of the electric vehicles, and they're also worried about the lack of charging infrastructure, which is improving pretty rapidly. You know, we just had that announcement a couple of weeks ago from the seven automakers that they're going to set up their own charging network and put 30,000 plugs out there. That's not the total answer, but it's a big step toward that. So I think eventually we all get there, but it's going to take a lot of time to reach these goals and a lot of time for people to be willing to switch.
Further reading: The EPA’s ambitious plan to cut auto emissions to slow climate change runs into skepticism, by Tom Krisher for The Associate Press.
Editor's note: Quotes in this article have been edited for length and clarity. You can listen to the full interview near the top of this page.
