For many years, Michigan was considered a national political bellwether.
But there are so many factors in play this year, even compared to just two years ago during the last midterm elections.
We’ve talked in recent days about how the arrival of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Michigan ballot as a candidate with the Natural Law Party might shift primary results.
"There's so far not a clear pattern in terms of whose second choice preferences he's taking more from," said Matt Grossman, a political science professor at Michigan State University. "There is obviously ties to the Democratic Party via the name, via his former association. But there are also ties to potential Trump voters, via, anti-vaccine advocacy and that distrust of institutions."
Beyond third-party candidates, Grossman said level of formal education is growing to be one of the biggest dividing lines between Democrats and Republicans. He has a book coming out this fall titled "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics."
In this episode of the pod, we talked to Grossman about whether or not Michigan is still a national bellwether, and which party voters identify with is increasingly being determined by whether or not someone holds a college degree.
Hear our conversation about how all of this might play into the presidential election come November by listening above.
