It’s that time of year again!
March Madness brackets will soon be under construction for the NCAA Men's and Women's basketball tournaments. Sports betting is kind of big and scary right now, but the tournament can still be a low-stakes place to show off your predictive skills. Or, perhaps just bragging rights with your buddies.
Albert Cohen, mathematician and sports analytics professor at Michigan State University, told Stateside filling out these brackets is more like a weighted coin flip.
Take for example, a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed team has probably happened once out of 140 games.
"Really, it's a very biased or weighted coin flip," Cohen said. "So, I think getting those games right, especially in the first round, is a great idea."
But Cohen says it can be harder to predict the winners of games earlier in the season because the teams may have never faced each other, at least not this year — but when it comes to teams in the Big 10, you have some more information because they've interacted before.
"You kind of know the matchups and you've done some really good scouting on your opposing players," Cohen said. "And, you've got a good understanding of injury history."
As for potential upsets, Cohen said to look for teams that are good at three-pointers and free throws because those are special situation plays.
"If you've got a team that's gelling at the right moment, that is lucky enough to be landing all those three-points and has that resilience because they've got a couple of good team captains, I think that's where you're going to probably find an upset candidate," Cohen said.
While Cohen will be abstaining from filling out a bracket this year, he has a lot of fun seeing his students fill out theirs.
His main advice to them? Look at the seedings.
Background reading:
Ask the expert: What’s the science of bracketology?
Hear the full conversation with Albert Cohen on the Stateside podcast.
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