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So, this past weekend we were watching the classic campaign documentary The War Room. It's the story of how Bill Clinton came from behind to win the 1992 presidential election. It stars young Clinton campaign operatives James Carville, Paul Begala and George Stephanopoulos and it’s a total hoot to watch this many years later. Some things have really changed since ‘92 (Fax machines. So many fax machines.) but one thing has remained constant: folks voting their economic self interest.
The famous scene in The War Room - the one that political operatives and pundits (and, ahem, hosts of political shows) continually talk about even today - is Carville reminding the campaign team that their message is a simple and everlasting one: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
And, in 2024, the economy remains one of the main issues - if not the main issue - for voters in 2024. Just a day after watching The War Room, new polling from The Financial Times/University of Michigan Ross School of Business showed a change in whom voters say they trust to handle the economy.
For the first time this year, voters in the FT/Ross poll said they trust Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. The poll’s been making a lot of news so we called Ross School Professor Erik Gordon to dig into the what (Harris up over Trump 42% to 41%) and the why.
Deeper dive: In polling, voters almost always say the economy ranks high in determining how they’re going to vote. But what do we really mean when we talk about the economy? Is it the numbers economists are always throwing about (CPI, GDP, etc) or does it have more to do with economic vibes: how am I, personally, feeling about the price of gas or milk? We asked Gordon about that, too.
Want your economic questions answered? Well, too bad! We’re political junkies, not economists! Ok, while we are definitely not economists, we love talking to economists (they’re just so stinking smart)! So, if you have economics questions related to politics… we’re all ears! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org! It’ll give us another good reason to call up someone super smart and share what we learn with you!
— GET CAUGHT UP —
Surge of jobseekers bumps up Mich. unemployment rate
Because, apparently, this week’s newsletter is all about the economy (It really is the economy, stupid), it’s only right to link to Rick’s story this week on Michigan’s latest unemployment numbers. Interestingly enough, the unemployment rate rose slightly last month (seemingly bad news) but one reason is because more people have decided to join the workforce (seemingly good news).
Inside Biden’s Decision to Drop Out [NYT]
Zoe's take: I love a good political behind-the-scenes story. I just can’t help it. A couple weeks ago in the newsletter I shared this minute-by-minute of Harris beginning her presidential campaign and this week The New York Times goes into detail about Biden’s decision to step down from his beach house in Delaware. The NYT’s compelling lede: “In the end, he was alone.”
Which Michigan counties have most EVs? Which have none? Politics play a role [Bridge Michigan]
Rick’s take: Yes, this is about EVs. And the environment. But it’s also about politics. (Full disclosure, I am a very happy EV driver and I live in Ann Arbor.) Economically, EVs are expensive to purchase, but you don’t have to pay for gas (or gas taxes, which is something the state and federal governments are going to have to tackle sooner or later) and being able to “fill up” at home is a great convenience. But range anxiety is reasonable and I can understand why Yoopers aren’t ready to embrace EVs with a dearth of Up North charging stations.
— IJP ON THE ROAD —
Zoe talked all things news and politics this week (alleged Iran campaign hack, Trump and Musk on X, and abortion ballot access in Arizona) on NPR’s Friday News Roundup.
— WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AT THE DINNER TABLE —
- Polls. The Washington Post’s average of selected national polls now suggests Harris is the current frontrunner. Remember, polling averages, like polls (including the aforementioned FT/Ross survey), are a snapshot. Things could and likely will change before November.
- The DNC. Next week it’s the Democrats' turn to convene and unite and do all their Windy City convention-y things. For months folks have been wondering just how this convention is going to go (lots and lots of look backs to 1968) and there will be a ton of Michigan Democrats in Chicago. We’ll be talking to them next week and bringing those conversations to you. You can also tune into Michigan Public all next week from 9-11 p.m. for special coverage. (We’re keeping an eye on which night Whitmer will speak and whether it’ll be a coveted prime-time slot).
- Kwame Kilpatrick. If you’re a Michigander, maybe it’s been a minute since you’ve thought about the former Democratic mayor of Detroit. Well, after his sentence was commuted by former President Donald Trump back in 2021, Kilpatrick is now headlining a GOP fundraiser in Oakland County next week. Interestingly enough, a number of Democrats - including current Democratic mayor of Detroit Mike Duggan - were supportive of Trump’s decision at the time.
- Making sure we don’t have other plans on October 1st, now that we know that’s when the Vice Presidential debate between Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz is going to officially happen!
Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
P.S. We want to hear from you! Email us with what you want more of (or less of) and what questions you want answered about election 2024! Drop us a note at politics@michiganpublic.org
