If it feels like the presidential and vice presidential candidates are constantly here in Michigan this election cycle… well, it’s because they are.
Polling and history tell us Michigan is a swing state this presidential election: Having gone to Republican Donald Trump in 2016 by the closest margin of any state that year (10,704 votes) and then flipping to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 (by 154,188 votes) Michigan's 15 electoral votes are up for grabs in 2024.
The polls between Harris and Trump in Michigan remain tight and within the margin of error, which means every single vote matters.
As political consultant John Sellek told us this week, “Michigan is smack dab in the middle of what's going to decide this election. I don't know in my lifetime that we've seen this many visits, this many times, this close to the election from all four members of the two tickets.” And Sellek would know, he’s been part of many statewide campaigns in his day.
Just this week alone, Trump was in Saginaw, Vance was in Marne and Harris is scheduled to visit Flint this evening.
At this point in the election the campaigns are focusing on two things in Michigan: getting their supporters out to vote and trying to persuade undecideds or so-called “low-propensity voters” (folks who don’t regularly vote in elections) to go to the polls. Visits by Harris and Trump - as well as their running mates and popular surrogates - are really good ways to do that. Sure, campaign events are streamed, national and local news will cover them and more people will consume that coverage than show up in-person. But the fact that the candidates are showing up to plant their boots in voters’ home turf makes a difference.
So, that’s why they’re coming to Michigan. But why are they choosing these particular spots?
We’re seeing a lot of visits from both candidates to southeast Michigan, particularly in populous Wayne County. “The number of times Kamala Harris has already been here during this cycle suggests how focused she is on that vote in Detroit,” Stephen Henderson, host of Created Equal, noted on the It’s Just Politics pod this week. Trump has been making inroads in Detroit since 2016. His campaign announced this week that the former president will be back in the state’s largest city next week. “I think Trump's going to probably get the highest level of votes that he's ever had in Detroit this time around,” Sellek predicts. That doesn’t mean Trump will win Detroit - not by a long-shot - but if Republicans can cut the Democratic margin in Michigan’s largest city, that’s fewer votes they’ll have to worry about outstate.
The campaigns are also using the location of their visits to build relationships with the voters they need to turn out. The Harris-Walz visits to big university towns like Ann Arbor and East Lansing are meant to inspire their already enthusiastic supporters and to engage younger college-age students to actually get out to vote (and maybe bring a friend or two).
If you look at where Trump and Vance have visited around the west side of the state - places like Sparta and Potterville - that’s meant to send “a message to the people out in those rural areas that they care about them. [Trump] wants those white, blue collar workers who are less likely to vote. He's trying to fire them up and get them going,” Sellek explains. “I think they're essentially sitting down and saying, how many times can I get to Michigan per week between now and November 5th?”
And you can keep track of all those visits along with us on the interactive map here.
Dig deeper: Saginaw County, where Trump visited this week, is a swing-county within our swing-state. It went for Obama in 2008 and 2012, for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 (by only 303 votes!) In fact, every presidential candidate who has won Michigan since 1992 has won Saginaw County. We’re keeping our eyes on you SC!
Got a prediction about where Harris or Trump will travel next? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
Get Caught Up:
Trump rally in Michigan dominated by more fall statements (The New York Times)
As you saw on the map above, former President Donald Trump was in Saginaw this week. As The New York Times reports, “appearing for roughly 85 minutes onstage, the Republican nominee repeated false claims about the 2020 election and introduced a mischaracterization about disaster relief.” The former president travels to Detroit next Thursday for an appearance before the Detroit Economic Club.
Former GOP congressman among those supporting Democratic presidential ticket
As Rick reports this week, “a group of former state GOP politicians, staffers, and consultants announced Thursday that they are endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for president. Many members of the group are well-known in state GOP circles and say they hope to move enough other Republicans to vote Democratic to make a difference in the swing state.” The press conference was basically Harris-Walz counter-programming timed to coincide with Trump’s Saginaw visit.
‘A false sent of comfort’: Michigan Dems fight to keep voters’ attention on abortion
Democrats in Michigan saw huge gains in voter turnout and enthusiasm when reproductive rights was on the ballot in Election 2022. Now, as Politico reports this week, there’s both private and public concern among top Democrats in the state that the issue has “slipped off many voters' radars” and that “they’re finding it harder to maintain the same level of voter outrage and enthusiasm after those protections are in place.”
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IJP On The Road:
Zoe joined The Brian Lehrer Show from WNYC to talk Harris v Trump in Michigan and take listener questions about the economy, immigration and housing affordability in Michigan.
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What we’re talking about at the dinner table:
MI Senate race: Lots of headlines this week coming out of Michigan’s ultra-competitive and highly-important open U.S. Senate race. Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP-aligned Super PAC, announced it will spend more than $20-million to help former Republican Representative Mike Rogers in the race to succeed Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, however, got a boost of her own with the endorsement this week of former President Barack Obama. Obama remains one of the most popular figures in the party and the Slotkin campaign is hoping the endorsement - plus an ad taped by Obama debuting today - boosts enthusiasm in the race. Meantime, we’re looking ahead to next Tuesday evening which will mark the first debate between Rogers and Slotkin. We’ll debrief what they had to say in next week’s It’s Just Politics pod with the political editors at The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press.
Not giving up on getting out: In a legal filing on Thursday, Rick reports that “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asked the full bench of judges on a federal appeals court to let him remove his name from Michigan’s presidential ballot. That’s after a divided three-judge panel of the Sixth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals rejected his case.” One interesting thing about this filing (other than RFK just not giving up on getting his name off the MI ballot while he fights to remain on the ballot in NY) is that his legal team is proposing a possible remedy: to post signage at polling places that say votes for Kennedy won’t be counted. We dug into how third party candidates will help decide the presidential race in Michigan on this pod episode last month.
Spotlight on MI: It’s not just the presidential candidates who are making Michigan their tentative homes from now until November. The crew from NPR’s Morning Edition will be here in the mitten all next week too. As part of the We, the Voters series, Morning Edition and All Things Considered are swinging through seven swing states this fall and will be bringing Michigan stories to the entire country all next week. Keep your ears tuned to Michigan Public for the stories!
Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
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