Michigan is one of seven swing states in the presidential election, and the race is basically tied. That means major party presidential campaigns are converging on the state in the final sprint to election day.
Campaigns for former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris rallied voters in Detroit this weekend. Each has been swarming Michigan, a key swing state, while trying to build up coalitions.
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Trump has been courting blue collar union workers, once a reliably Democratic voting bloc. He often includes them in his speeches.
UAW member Tim Gregory both gave and received praise from Trump during a roundtable Friday in Auburn Hills.
“I think that you see the changes and what we need, where we need in order to grow the business, grow the jobs,” Gregory said.
Gregory said he believes Trump’s proposals for greater reliance on fossil fuels and high tariffs on Chinese imports would help the auto industry. Over the past week, depending on the speech, Trump has proposed anywhere from 60 to 500 percent tariffs on Chinese auto imports.
Most economists doubt that high tariffs would help U.S. manufacturing or consumers.
Trump is betting that, even though Harris has won many union endorsements, he can siphon rank-and-file support among members. But some union presidents supporting Harris are saying that’s not likely.
April Verrett leads the Service Employees International Union. She said this election in Michigan will come down to each campaign’s ground game.
“I feel the energy in this room. I felt it yesterday when I was in Ypsilanti. I felt it the day before when I was in Lansing, I was in Flint a couple weeks ago. This is our election to win,” Verrett said Saturday.
To work the ground game, Harris spent time in Detroit earlier in the week trying to shore up support among another traditional Democratic base: Black men. In an iHeartMedia interview with host Charlamagne tha God, Harris promoted a plan to boost home ownership in the Black community.
“So, part of my plan is that we're going to give people a twenty-five thousand dollars down payment assistance to get their foot in the door to buy a home for first time home buyers,” Harris said Wednesday.
Economists said that would help first time homebuyers, but could inflate the housing market.
Trump’s campaign is emphasizing its organizing efforts in and around Detroit as part of its own outreach to the Black community. But his events have yet to draw a sizeable Black crowd.
That doesn’t worry Linda Lee Tarver, the president of Black Americans for Trump.
“We don’t need a hundred percent of Black folks. But we need enough to send a message. And I believe that message is being sent. Which is why she’s trying to court Black people now,” Lee Tarver said.
Lee Tarver believes Trump’s policies would benefit everyone, including Black people. She estimates 30 percent of Black voters showing up for Trump would send that message.
With slightly more than two weeks to go until election day, the Michigan Department of State estimates nearly 15 percent of registered voters have already cast a ballot. That includes around 19-hundred in-person early votes cast this weekend in Detroit.
Presidential campaigns spend a lot of time in Michigan.
Whichever candidate gets the most statewide votes wins all of Michigan's 15 coveted electoral votes. Kamala Harris (D) and Donald Trump (R) are nearly tied in most polls of the state's voters.
The map below shows where we know candidates (and some surrogates) have publicly appeared in Michigan since July 15, 2024.
The height of each county on the map represents the number of voters in the 2020 presidential election.
The colors of each county show which party had the lead in votes and how big the lead was. Dark red means Republicans had a big lead and dark blue means the same for Democrats. Counties that look almost white had both parties nearly tied.
Sources: CQ Press Voting and Elections Collection, Geocodio, Candidate visit information from campaign communications and reports from Michigan Public and other news organizations. • Data visualization and analysis by Adam Yahya Rayes and Zoe Clark | Michigan Public. • Visit marker locations are not exact. • Last update: Nov. 5, 2024.
In-person early voting opens statewide on Saturday, creating more reasons for the campaigns to keep showing up. Harris will be campaigning alongside multiple notables in Michigan this week, including the Obamas and Liz Cheney.
