- Concerns about the economy likely drove more voters to the polls — and to vote for Donald Trump — this election.
- Rural counties make up about 19% of Michigan’s population, but 40% of the increased voter turnout in November compared to 2020, according to an analysis of preliminary data.
- The Michigan Democratic Party’s Rural Caucus chair says the party needs to be more active in rural areas to succeed.
- Increased turnout affected downballot races too.
Rural voters turned out.
If you’re looking for the simplest explanation of how Donald Trump won Michigan in 2024, that’s as simple as you’re going to find.
The Michigan Secretary of State’s office announced more voters cast ballots in the state in 2024 than in any previous election. But a Michigan Public analysis of preliminary data as of Tuesday afternoon shows the increased turnout wasn’t in the state’s largest metro areas.
Most of the growth came in the counties with the least number of people.
Wayne County, the state’s largest county by population, actually had fewer voters in 2024 than in 2020. Other urban or suburban counties like Kalamazoo, Oakland, and Genesee saw tiny increases under 1%.
But voter turnout increased dramatically in rural counties: Kalkaska, Lake, Roscommon, Montcalm. These are the counties with the highest percentage growth in voter turnout from 2020 to 2024. That growth wasn’t just concentrated in a few rural counties.
Less populated counties nearly matched the increased turnout of Michigan's 20 largest counties in this election — a difference of about 5,000 voters in preliminary results. In 2020, the 63 smaller counties never got that close.
Democrats are a “non-factor” in rural counties, says a rural Democrat
To Mark Ludwig, who chairs the Michigan Democratic Party’s Rural Caucus, the results were disappointing, but not exactly surprising.
“One of the things I’ve said as an activist ... is we really underestimate Trump as people of the left because we don’t, you know, appreciate his sense of humor. We don’t appreciate the things that I think that Trump voters find attractive in him,” Ludwig said. “Underestimating him because we don’t appreciate him is a big problem.”
Ludwig lives in Allegan County, where there was a nearly 8% increase in voter turnout compared to the 2020 presidential election. Preliminary vote totals show despite the higher turnout in the county, Vice President Kamala Harris actually had fewer votes than Joe Biden in 2020.
Ludwig said he believes the difference just came down to basic, kitchen-table economics.
Ludwig said he believes the Democratic party ran a strong campaign, with good organization. But it wasn’t enough to overcome Donald Trump’s economic message to rural voters.
“Our story was not good,” Ludwig said. “You know, you’re trying to tell a story about ‘democracy’s going to go away.’ That’s a much less tangible story than ‘eggs cost $4.50.’”
And even though the Democratic Party had rural activists like himself, Ludwig said there aren’t enough Democrats at the local level to change minds in rural communities.
Ludwig, who previously ran unsuccessfully for state representative and Allegan County drain commissioner, said the party has all but given up on winning local races in counties like his.
“What’s the problem in rural America? We don’t run enough candidates,” Ludwig said.
Democrats have become a “non-factor” in rural counties, he said, and turning it around won’t just be about coming up with a new message. It’ll be about people showing up.
“It’s not policy, it’s not magic words,” Ludwig said. “It’s our story and our values being lived out loud in rural areas that will eventually bring us back to being competitive in rural Michigan.”
The increased turnout likely did not just affect the presidential race. Down the ballot, local races in many of Michigan's smaller, more rural counties saw an explosion in votes.
Roscommon Area Public Schools, for example, had a lot more people voting on their school bond than Superintendent Catherine Erickson expected.
“When we look historically at the number of positive voters that we need to pass a millage or a bond, we met those numbers,” Erickson said. “There was just additional voter turnout that made those numbers no longer a reliable predictor of success in this measure.”
Roscommon County saw turnout increase by about 7%, just over 1,000 votes. The bond failed by less than that.
