The economy. The economy. The economy.
Zoe will always refer back to James Carville’s legendary axiom, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Forever. She considers it the ultimate in political wisdom and this year certainly seems to have proved them both correct. The top issue wasn’t democracy or reproductive rights and Carville says Democrats paid a price for failing to recognize that.
“It was a bad night,” Carville told CNN after the election. “People wanted change and we resolutely refused to give them a different direction, which we could have done.”
Now, jobs numbers are not the be-all and end-all when it comes to discerning voter sentiments. But those numbers can offer important clues and signals and if people’s lived experiences match the data, well that makes a difference.
So let’s take a quick look at Michigan’s most recent jobs report.
Michigan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked up last month to 4.7% - an increase of two-tenths of a percentage point, according to the October jobs data released Thursday by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.
October is the seventh consecutive month the state’s jobless rate has either gone up or remained flat.
Michigan Labor Market Information Director Wayne Rourke said, by way of comparison, the national rate remained static at 4.1%.
“Most of the job losses we’re seeing recently is in manufacturing and its related industry, professional and business services,” Rourke told Rick. “Each of these industries has 6,000 jobs apiece in the last six months so these losses in these industries is greater than what the U.S. is seeing.”
He said the state’s October number likely reflects a return to more typical employment patterns. “Those were a recovery from a really bad recession due to the pandemic, so going forward, the unemployment rate being at 5%, under 5%, is still historically very good compared to what we’ve seen,” he said.
Michigan’s adjusted unemployment rate at this time last year was 4.2%. Is this a trend? Does it represent something voters are “feeling?”
It’s something we’re watching.
Dig deeper: Speaking of feelings about the economy, we know that voters’ perceptions do not always reflect statistical reality. Recent polling shows that, according to the Detroit Regional Chamber/Glengariff Group, “Negativity about the economy and inflation show early signs of softening, though voters’ perceptions continue to differ from the reality of a fundamentally solid economy. For instance, a majority of Michigan voters (53%) now say the state is on the right track; GDP has been growing – near or above a rate of 3% – since Q3 of 2022; and inflation is at its lowest rate (2.5%) since February 2021.” Unsurprisingly, “party affiliation remains a significant factor in voters’ feelings about the economy.”
Did the economy help determine how you voted? Did jobs data even matter to you? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
What we’re talking about at the dinner table:
Duggan: There was big, albeit expected, news out of the state’s largest city this week as three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced that he will not run for reelection next year. There have been rumblings within the city (and around the state Capitol) that Duggan would not run again and, instead, make a play for the Democratic nod in Michigan’s 2026 race for governor. Duggan did not address whether or not he’s running for higher office in his announcement. Zoe asked Duggan about this speculation a few months ago and he said that it was much too early to talk about the gubernatorial race. It might be too early for him but there are plenty of folks - including possible Democratic primary challengers - who are keeping a close eye on what Duggan does next. In the shorter term, the mayor has 13 months left in office and, as The Detroit News reports, “he said the city will have to adjust to an incoming Republican Donald Trump presidency. He called Democratic President Joe Biden the "best friend" Detroit has ever had in the White House. Duggan said having a new president "is going to be a challenge" but pledged to look for common ground.”
Whitmer: Governor Gretchen Whitmer made an appearance this week on NPR fan favorite Wait, Wait…Don’t Tell Me! and seemed to have a good time after a tough couple of weeks (You can listen to the broadcast tomorrow at 10 a.m. on Michigan Public). Much like Duggan, it’s clear that Whitmer (and Democratic governors throughout the country) are trying to figure out what comes next vis-a-vis their working relationship with President-elect Trump. Some of Whitmer’s fellow governors have founded the Governors Safeguarding Democracy association but, interestingly enough, when asked this week whether she would join, she said no. Rather Whitmer says she’s ready to work with GOP leaders in Michigan and the Trump White House. We’ll see how that plays out over the next two years and if we see a return of “That Woman from Michigan” as a bête noire of Republicans in the White House and the statehouse.
Trump cabinet: Former U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos appears to be a top prospect to return to Washington and the Trump cabinet with the stated mission of disbanding the U.S. Department of Education. That would be quite the departure from other cabinet picks since DeVos resigned from the Trump cabinet in 2021 in a letter that held Trump responsible for the January 6th insurrection. Michigan Republican Party Chair Pete Hoekstra could also be in line for a high office after presiding over a state GOP rebuild following the party’s near-meltdown (pod listeners will know that we spoke with the Chairman in a recent It’s Just Politics episode). Hoekstra served as Trump’s ambassador to the Netherlands during his first term. The speculation is Hoekstra might serve as U.S. Transportation Secretary, a position currently held by Traverse City transplant Pete Buttigieg (who was on the same It’s Just Politics pod as Hoekstra coincidentally enough).
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Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
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