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Happy New Year!
If there’s one thing we relearned about politics in 2024, it’s be careful about making predictions. So, in today’s first newsletter of the new year, a resolution: there will be no predicting! But, rather, the top five Michigan political stories we’re watching in 2025:
Divided Lansing: Republicans won back the state House this year leading to another two years of divided government at the state Capitol. The lower chamber will be controlled by the GOP while Democrats remain in power in the state Senate, and term-limited Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer finishes her final two years in office. This new reality will define nearly every legislative negotiation in 2025. And let’s not forget that, while Republicans spent two years iced out of power, they’ve still got more experience in recent decades pulling the levers than Democrats. Much like Democrats at the start of their trifecta in 2023, House Republicans have their own priorities - which takes us to numbers two and three on our list to watch.
Tipped wage: Business groups and Republicans have made rolling back elements of the minimum wage and earned sick leave initiatives a top priority. They’ve done an effective job of ramping up a pressure campaign to roll back the phased-in minimum wage increase for tipped workers. Their argument is restaurant workers and others who typically include tips as part of their earnings will be net losers as customers become less generous. Unions want everyone to sit tight and see how those theories play out. They also haven’t forgotten that business groups and Republicans painted themselves into this corner after attempting to use parliamentary sleight of hand (ahem, “adopt and amend”) to try and dilute the elements of minimum wage and earned sick leave petition campaigns.
Road funding: Whitmer’s signature 2018 campaign promise to “fix the damn roads” has yet to be fully realized. In the final weeks of last month’s lame-duck legislative session both Whitmer and incoming Republican House Speaker Matt Hall said they wanted to find a road funding solution. (Narrator: it was not to be). The issue will now serve not just as a barometer of whether Democrats and Republicans can work together in the new session, it will also hang over all other policy negotiations in divided Lansing. The new House GOP majority has already put a proposal on the table but Republicans also have a realpolitik interest in denying Whitmer a win here as they eye the lame duck governor’s future aspirations (we're closely watching too).
Party Chair races: The leadership openings in both the Democratic and Republican parties this year will put onstage ideological splits in both coalitions and how the lower echelons see their paths forward. Sure, we’ll hear a lot of there’s-more-that-unites-us-than-divides-us rhetoric. But the reality is factions in each party have conflicting ideas on how to win the next election cycles. We’ll see how much President-elect Trump and Governor Whitmer publicly stake their leadership brands on these leadership battles.
- Speaking of vacancies: The elected leaders of Michigan’s executive branch are all being termed out in 2026. While many wonder what’s next for Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, there’s a crowded group eying those pending vacancies and we’re sure to get candidate announcements in the coming year. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan already made huge news when he announced he’s bolting the Democratic Party and will run as a petition-nominated independent for the state’s highest office. We’re also watching for announcements from Benson, U.S. Transportation Secretary (and Michigan transplant) Pete Buttigieg, Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist on our no-doubt incomplete list of Democratic gubernatorial contenders. On the Republican side, Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, U.S. Representative John James and 2022-retread Tudor Dixon are on many lists. The nominations for Secretary of State and Attorney General will be decided by delegates to party conventions instead of primaries. Yes, the midterm is still two years away, but 2025 will see a flurry of soft launches, fundraising, and endorsement-jockeying.
Okay, the latter is a bit of a prediction but some things never change in politics. Here’s to 2025!
Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
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Is there a Michigan political story you think we missed in the top five?! Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter in 2025? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
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